China: Eco-Apocalypse or Green Revolution? (Article)

CHINA IS FACING ‘ENVIRONMENTAL APOCALYPSE’
People & The Planet
September 12, 2006

http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=2838

China’s environmental crisis has now reached the point where it threatens
world stability — but the country’s economic dynamism and scope for
innovation could make it the world leader in a sustainable future according
to a report released today to coincide with the visit to London of the
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.

Writing in Greening the Dragon, Jonathan Porritt, Founder of Forum for the
Future, which has produced the report
<http://www.forumforthefuture.org.uk/news/china_page431.aspx>, says: “What¹s
going on in China is quite simply the most important story anywhere in the
world….There is no point trying to downplay this; there is an ecological
apocalypse unfolding in China right now.”

China’s own deputy environment minister, Pan Yue, warns that: “China’s
economic miracle will end soon because the environment can no longer keep
pace.”

The country faces devastating air and water pollution, along with a growing
shortage of water and agricultural land. And it will soon be the world’s
single largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Set against that, though, the
government’s declared ambitious targets to boost renewable energy and is
planning a whole wave of new ‘eco-cities’ which could be a model for the
rest of the world.

“It is an extraordinary challenge”, says Porritt. “But China is capable of
moving with great speed when it puts its mind to it. There’s no reason why
China shouldn’t become the world’s number one nation in terms of eco
efficiency.”

As Greening the Dragon’s Editor, award-winning journalist Martin Wright,
puts it, “China needs a true green revolution. If it can pull it off,
there’s hope for the rest of the world. If it can’t, the future’s going to
be grim. But if anyone can do it, China can.”

Published in colour with photographs from leading Chinese photographers, the
special supplement sets out the key sustainability challenges facing China,
and describes some of the green breakthroughs under way, from the ‘green
city’ of Dongtan, near Shanghai, to the ecological restoration of the Loess
Plateau — where decades of desertification are being reversed in the
largest project of its kind anywhere in the world.

Greening the Dragon draws upon leading experts, journalists and thinkers
from both China and elsewhere, to provide a one-stop guide to the “the most
important story in the world.”

Bike plea

In a foreword to the report Jonathan Porritt writes: “Back in June, the
Chinese construction minister decreed that all Chinese cities had to
reinstate the bike lanes that had been removed over the last few years to
make way for the car. All civil servants were told that they must either
cycle, or take public transport to get to work — with the minister
apparently determined that China should regain its global accolade as ³the
Kingdom of Bicycles².

“He¹ll have quite a struggle on his hands with some of China¹s increasingly
powerful city mayors, for whom the car has become a far more fitting symbol
of economic and political success than the lowly bike. Every day in Beijing,
for instance, more than 1,000 new cars are rolled out on its already
helplessly congested streets.

“That is just one of a seemingly limitless flow of eye-watering statistics
about China today. The sheer scale of the place continues to astound the
rest of the world. And if your passion in life is sustainable economic
development, rather than simply the environment, then what¹s going on in
China is quite simply the most important unfolding story anywhere in the
world.

“If 10 per cent of the 60 million people who live in the UK choose to reduce
their energy consumption by 1 per cent, it hardly registers as a blip on the
world scale. But when 10 per cent of the 1.3 billion people who live in
China take advantage of its surging prosperity to increase their own energy
consumption by 1 per cent a year (by buying a car, or eating more meat, or
getting a larger flat), then the world had better take notice. Such
decisions affect us here in the UK as much as our fellow world citizens in
China.

Living standards

“In an interconnected and interdependent world, China¹s emissions are our
emissions. Chinese politicians talk with justifiable pride of their enormous
achievement in enabling more than 250 million people to escape grinding
rural poverty, and to find jobs in the country¹s burgeoning economy.

“Living standards have soared; and average life expectancy increased from
just 35 years when the communists came to power in 1949, to 72 years in
2004.

“These social gains have been driven primarily by the economic boom — with
average growth of around 10 pr cent over the last 15 years. But that has
caused environmental damage on such a scale that the entire growth model for
China is now imperilled.

“As Nature reported in 2005: ³The losses from pollution and ecological
damage range from 7 to 20 per cent of GDP every year in the past two
decades.²

“The impact on human health has been particularly severe. About 300,000
deaths a year are attributed to air quality problems. Sixteen of the world¹s
20 most polluted cities are in China, and levels of cancer in such areas are
among the worst in the world.

Power stations

“Things are going to get a great deal worse before they get much better.
China is building a new coal-fired power station every ten days. In 2005
alone, it added about 65,000 megawatts of new power generation — roughly
equivalent to the entire power capacity of the UK today. It is already the
world¹s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and is one of the most
inefficient energy users in the world — emissions per unit of GDP are ten
times that of the average for developed countries. There is no point trying
to downplay this: there is an ecological apocalypse unfolding in China right
now.

“But few are more aware of this than the rulers of China themselves. Just a
few months ago, the 11th Five Year Plan was unveiled by Premier Wen Jiabao
with an exceptionally tough message that China could not follow the old path
(which, he might have added, is the path set out by the West) of ³grow
first, clean up the environmental mess later². It had to learn to grow
sustainably — even if that meant growing more slowly.

“The government¹s impressive targets for the next five years include a 10
per cent fall in total pollutants (notably sulphur dioxide emissions and
chemical oxygen demand), a 20 per cent fall in energy consumption per unit
of GDP, and a 30 per cent reduction in water use (per unit of industrial
value added).

“It¹s also developing a green accounting system that will include full
environmental costs in its calculation of GDP — something that I would
dearly love to see working here in the UK.

“It is an extraordinary challenge. But China is capable of moving with great
speed when it puts its mind to it: it phased out the use of leaded petrol in
less than two years (compared to the decade or more it took us here in the
UK), and has recently mandated emissions standards for all new cars that are
at least the equivalent of European standards.

“All of which guarantees an ongoing battle royal between those who see the
glass as half empty, and those who see it as half full. The Œhalf-empties¹
look at the existing environmental legacy, factor that into the huge
political and social pressures to keep the Chinese economy booming at almost
any cost, and remain sunk in impenetrable gloom.

“The Œhalf-fulls¹ see no reason why China shouldn¹t become the world¹s
number one nation in terms of eco-efficiency and the kind of ³green
industrial revolution² that Western leaders love to pontificate about. But
they acknowledge that achieving this will take a lot more than some
ministerial decree restoring the bike to its rightful place in the hierarchy
of sustainable transport systems — however welcome that may be!”